Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Shenzhenwin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Fusionloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Team Fusion
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 436 bans
Mars
479 picks · 696 bans
Bane
440 picks · 294 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 535 bans
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 605 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 605 bans
Sand King
354 picks · 520 bans
Keeper of the Light
343 picks · 758 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% Shenzhen
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:32
Shenzhen 45%Team Fusion 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by Team Fusion in 56:55.
Game 2prediction correct18:31
Shenzhen 45%Team Fusion 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by Team Fusion in 55:36.
Game 3prediction correct34:8
Shenzhen 45%Team Fusion 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by Team Fusion in 30:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Fusion · 55%
Series resultShenzhen 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3