Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Happy Sealswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 436 bans
Mars
479 picks · 694 bans
Bane
441 picks · 295 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 534 bans
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 607 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 604 bans
Sand King
356 picks · 521 bans
Keeper of the Light
343 picks · 759 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 24%
Hero pool strength58% Happy Seals
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:29
Arkosh Gaming 64%Happy Seals 36%
The model gave 64% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 34:27.
Game 2prediction missed22:51
Arkosh Gaming 64%Happy Seals 36%
The model gave 64% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 42:18.
Game 3prediction missed47:54
Arkosh Gaming 64%Happy Seals 36%
The model gave 64% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 1:03:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 64%
Series resultHappy Seals 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3