Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 436 bans
Mars
479 picks · 694 bans
Bane
441 picks · 295 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 534 bans
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 607 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 604 bans
Sand King
356 picks · 521 bans
Keeper of the Light
343 picks · 759 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total68% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:21
Hokori 32%beastcoast 68%
The model gave 68% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 39:41.
Game 2prediction correct15:35
Hokori 32%beastcoast 68%
The model gave 68% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 32:16.
Game 3prediction correct31:17
Hokori 32%beastcoast 68%
The model gave 68% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 31:10.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 68%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3