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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DogChampwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

simply TOOBASED

No games played over 6 months.

Team DogChamp

Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 12 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
StoneBank · 10 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 8 games
13%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
43%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yarintheslayer · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 435 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
476 picks · 694 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
440 picks · 295 bans
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 534 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 609 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 604 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
356 picks · 522 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
343 picks · 759 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:8
simply TOOBASED 27%Team DogChamp 73%
The model gave 73% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 26:24.
Game 2prediction correct38:32
simply TOOBASED 27%Team DogChamp 73%
The model gave 73% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 33:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 73%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2