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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 18 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 11 games
64%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 9 games
67%

Rune Eaters

Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 438 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
479 picks · 697 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
445 picks · 295 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 535 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 610 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 607 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
364 picks · 524 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
343 picks · 314 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 49%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:28
Team Spirit 47%Rune Eaters 53%
The model gave 53% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 52:37.
Game 2prediction missed23:10
Team Spirit 47%Rune Eaters 53%
The model gave 53% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 22:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 53%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2