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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 75 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 53 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 43 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 42 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 42 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 40 games
63%

GamerLegion

Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 19 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 19 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 17 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 16 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 16 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Bignum · 13 games
54%
Viper
Viperoften banned
YamSun · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
641 picks · 815 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
561 picks · 581 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
461 picks · 401 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
453 picks · 301 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
408 picks · 1051 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 682 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 608 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
368 picks · 971 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total70% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:16
MOUZ 61%GamerLegion 39%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 1:02:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMidOne
49% · 342 games49% · 263 games
Templar AssassinShad
Templar Assassin
Marci
MarciCrystallis
46% · 160 games52% · 90 games
LargoFayde
Largo
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
51% · 150 games50% · 314 games
BeastmasterRCY
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
54% · 97 games50% · 166 games
DazzleSpeeed
Dazzle
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanyamich
52% · 222 games47% · 138 games
ClockwerkBignum
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct32:21
MOUZ 62%GamerLegion 38%
The model gave 62% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 46:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
43% · 507 games44% · 193 games
BeastmasterShad
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderBOOM
55% · 367 games51% · 399 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMidOne
53% · 120 games47% · 135 games
DoomFayde
Doom
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
57% · 218 games42% · 328 games
TinyBignum
Tiny
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidyamich
53% · 97 games54% · 254 games
Shadow DemonSpeeed
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 70%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2