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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Bane
Bane
antoha · 21 game
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
46%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
smN · 12 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 9 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
nesfeer · 9 games
33%

Hydra

Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 26 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Muka · 20 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kami · 19 games
47%
Bane
Banesignature
Muka · 18 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 16 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 439 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
480 picks · 699 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
451 picks · 296 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 536 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 611 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 609 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
366 picks · 527 bans
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
345 picks · 767 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total57% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:14
X3 43%Hydra 57%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 43:05.
Game 2prediction correct34:19
X3 43%Hydra 57%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 37:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 57%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2