European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astini+5loss 0:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:1
VP.Prodigywin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Astini+5
Jakirooften banned
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Tusk
Daze · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
Daze · 6 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 5 games
Warlock
SoNNeikO · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 4 games
Bristleback
DM · 4 games
Phoenix
DM · 4 games
VP.Prodigy
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 21 game
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 19 games
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
Sand King
Katsura · 17 games
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
Jakirooften banned
JANTER · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
641 picks · 815 bans
Tiny
561 picks · 581 bans
Tusk
461 picks · 401 bans
Warlock
453 picks · 301 bans
Shadow Demon
408 picks · 1051 bans
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 682 bans
Mars
381 picks · 608 bans
Shadow Fiend
368 picks · 971 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Astini+5
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Astini+5 55%VP.Prodigy 45%
The model gave 55% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstini+5 · 55%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1