?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
cybercatswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
No!ob · 10 games
70%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
OmaR · 10 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
OmaR · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 7 games
57%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Eixn · 7 games
71%

cybercats

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 15 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hduo · 13 games
31%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 11 games
82%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 10 games
20%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
56%
Bane
Bane
Hduo · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 7 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fezor · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 437 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
481 picks · 701 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
452 picks · 297 bans
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 533 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 612 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 605 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
367 picks · 531 bans
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
348 picks · 765 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:8
PSG Quest 40%cybercats 60%
The model gave 60% on cybercats — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 20:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo!ob
46% · 270 games52% · 158 games
WeaverShigetsu
Weaver
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritOmaR
39% · 90 games58% · 59 games
BeastmasterDkFogas
Beastmaster
Io
IoEixn
54% · 304 games52% · 147 games
PuckEgor
Puck
51% · 65 games
DoomFezor
Doom
56% · 235 games
BaneHduo
Bane
Game 2prediction correct18:29
PSG Quest 42%cybercats 58%
The model gave 58% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
53% · 129 games55% · 89 games
Faceless VoidShigetsu
Faceless Void
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOmaR
48% · 83 games47% · 104 games
Keeper of the LightEgor
Keeper of the Light
Io
IoEixn
45% · 94 games53% · 39 games
EnigmaDkFogas
Enigma
45% · 47 games
JakiroFezor
Jakiro
59% · 27 games
MarciHduo
Marci
Game 3prediction correct43:42
PSG Quest 38%cybercats 62%
The model gave 62% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 53:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNo!ob
47% · 158 games51% · 10 games
AlchemistEgor
Alchemist
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritOmaR
42% · 38 games54% · 59 games
Wraith KingShigetsu
Wraith King
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenEixn
43% · 13 games48% · 23 games
VisageDkFogas
Visage
58% · 48 games
DoomFezor
Doom
59% · 69 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 68%
Series resultcybercats 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3