Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Dreamerswin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Mad Kingsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Ogre Magisignature
Mjz · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
Frank · 10 games
Marssignature
Frank · 10 games
Tinysignature
sl4d1n- · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
ArzenT · 7 games
Medusaoften banned
Mnz · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 435 bans
Mars
479 picks · 701 bans
Bane
452 picks · 297 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 531 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 612 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 604 bans
Sand King
367 picks · 531 bans
Keeper of the Light
346 picks · 761 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
Dreamers 47%Mad Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 27:17.
Game 2prediction correct30:38
Dreamers 47%Mad Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 43:24.
Game 3prediction correct14:23
Dreamers 47%Mad Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 34:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 53%
Series resultDreamers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3