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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 6 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
Puppey · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
YapzOr · 6 games
33%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 5 games
40%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
60%

Entity

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 434 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
478 picks · 702 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
451 picks · 296 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 530 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 613 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 604 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
370 picks · 531 bans
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
346 picks · 761 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Entity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:11
Team Secret 43%Entity 57%
The model gave 57% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 34:25.
Game 2prediction correct29:41
Team Secret 43%Entity 57%
The model gave 57% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 55:58.
Game 3prediction correct22:32
Team Secret 43%Entity 57%
The model gave 57% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 42:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 57%
Series resultEntity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3