Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorrywin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ChillOutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Sorry
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 42 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 35 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 32 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 32 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 28 games
Tiny
Worick · 28 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 25 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 19 games
ChillOut
Phantom Lanceroften banned
paradise' · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
lilskrip · 1 game
Marcioften banned
lilskrip · 1 game
Snapfire
lilskrip · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
lilskrip · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
paradise' · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
paradise' · 1 game
Winter Wyvern
lilskrip · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 435 bans
Mars
480 picks · 699 bans
Bane
450 picks · 296 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 530 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 614 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 604 bans
Sand King
371 picks · 532 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 22%
Hero pool strength59% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:19
No Sorry 76%ChillOut 24%
The model gave 76% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 41:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaKami
Drow Rangerparadise'
Keeper of the LightWorick
Kunkkahina
Centaur WarrunnerLastHero-
Beastmasteregxrdemxn
Skywrath Magey0nd
Dawnbreakerlilskrip
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Game 2prediction correct29:20
No Sorry 73%ChillOut 27%
The model gave 73% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 31:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistKami
Phantom Lancerparadise'
Centaur WarrunnerLastHero-
Timbersawegxrdemxn
InvokerWorick
Night Stalkerhina
Hoodwinky0nd
Undyinglilskrip
Crystal MaidenBLACKARXANGEL
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 88%
Series resultNo Sorry 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2