Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Weaversignature
Skem · 17 games
Bane
Skem · 15 games
Death Prophetsignature
Skem · 15 games
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 15 games
Miranasignature
Tims · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 13 games
Nigma Galaxy SEA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 432 bans
Mars
480 picks · 695 bans
Bane
449 picks · 295 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 529 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 614 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 602 bans
Sand King
371 picks · 532 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total56% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:43
BOOM Esports 44%Nigma Galaxy SEA 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 52:27.
Game 2prediction missed35:15
BOOM Esports 44%Nigma Galaxy SEA 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 43:24.
Game 3prediction missed22:6
BOOM Esports 44%Nigma Galaxy SEA 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 25:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 56%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3