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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Tempestloss 0:2
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tempest

No games played over 6 months.

Thunder Awaken

Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 19 games
74%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 19 games
74%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 18 games
78%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 17 games
82%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 16 games
88%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 13 games
69%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 10 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 433 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
483 picks · 692 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 294 bans
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
439 picks · 533 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 615 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 607 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
373 picks · 534 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 318 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 64%
Hero pool strength66% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:23
Tempest 7%Thunder Awaken 93%
The model gave 93% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 32:52.
Game 2prediction correct23:30
Tempest 7%Thunder Awaken 93%
The model gave 93% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 30:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 93%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2