Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 0:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:1
SG e-sportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Weaveroften banned
Jupiter · 12 games
Snapfire
Jupiter · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Benny · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Cys · 9 games
Bane
Nuages · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
mini-` · 6 games
Treant Protector
Nuages · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 5 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 433 bans
Mars
485 picks · 689 bans
Bane
453 picks · 294 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 533 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 616 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 606 bans
Sand King
374 picks · 536 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:47
Infinity Esports 59%SG e-sports 41%
The model gave 59% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 54:23.
Game 2prediction missed42:34
Infinity Esports 59%SG e-sports 41%
The model gave 59% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 50:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 59%
Series resultSG e-sports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2