Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
HFwin 2:1series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPSURIM PRASADloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 15 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 10 games
Bane
Malady · 8 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 8 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 8 games
SURIM PRASAD
Tiny
Alexxo · 1 game
Zeus
Alexxo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 434 bans
Mars
485 picks · 688 bans
Bane
453 picks · 292 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 531 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 616 bans
Sand King
376 picks · 535 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 605 bans
Grimstroke
348 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 29%
Hero pool strength63% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:16
HF 83%SURIM PRASAD 17%
The model gave 83% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 30:35.
Game 2prediction missed30:36
HF 83%SURIM PRASAD 17%
The model gave 83% on HF — the game was taken by SURIM PRASAD in 36:20.
Game 3prediction correct51:25
HF 83%SURIM PRASAD 17%
The model gave 83% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 43:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 83%
Series resultHF 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3