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Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Empireloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
25%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%

Team Empire

Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 19 games
37%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 18 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
xannii · 18 games
44%
Bane
Bane
633 · 15 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 14 games
21%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Antares · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 437 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
487 picks · 690 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
451 picks · 289 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 530 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 618 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
378 picks · 539 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 610 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
351 picks · 316 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 37%
Hero pool strength52% YNT
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:6
YNT 54%Team Empire 46%
The model gave 54% on YNT — the game was taken by Team Empire in 29:03.
Game 2prediction missed47:21
YNT 54%Team Empire 46%
The model gave 54% on YNT — the game was taken by Team Empire in 38:55.
Game 3prediction missed23:34
YNT 54%Team Empire 46%
The model gave 54% on YNT — the game was taken by Team Empire in 34:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 54%
Series resultYNT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3