Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CDEC Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 438 bans
Mars
488 picks · 691 bans
Bane
453 picks · 289 bans
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 531 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 621 bans
Sand King
381 picks · 541 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 613 bans
Grimstroke
354 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:25
Invictus Gaming 62%CDEC Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 54:17.
Game 2prediction missed33:15
Invictus Gaming 62%CDEC Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 38:40.
Game 3prediction missed
Invictus Gaming 62%CDEC Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 62%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3