Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NoPing VPNwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
NoPing VPN
Grimstrokesignature
Accel · 15 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Accel · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 13 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 12 games
Snapfire
Accel · 11 games
Iosignature
Duster · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lumière · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
510 picks · 439 bans
Mars
488 picks · 695 bans
Bane
454 picks · 291 bans
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 534 bans
Storm Spirit
384 picks · 624 bans
Sand King
383 picks · 542 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 614 bans
Grimstroke
356 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)15% vs 31%
Hero pool strength53% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Balrogs 34%NoPing VPN 66%
The model gave 66% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN.
Game 2prediction correct
Balrogs 34%NoPing VPN 66%
The model gave 66% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 66%
Series resultNoPing VPN 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2