Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Dreamersloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ravenswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Ravens
Enchantressoften banned
Cara · 4 games
Bane
Cara · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
Mirana
d1smar · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
511 picks · 441 bans
Mars
488 picks · 698 bans
Bane
454 picks · 291 bans
Dragon Knight
441 picks · 534 bans
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 624 bans
Sand King
383 picks · 542 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 617 bans
Grimstroke
356 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 75%
Hero pool strength59% Ravens
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Dreamers 35%Ravens 65%
The model gave 65% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens.
Game 2prediction correct
Dreamers 35%Ravens 65%
The model gave 65% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens.
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 65%
Series resultRavens 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2