Team Empire vs HF — prediction Winline Insight · Dota 2

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Winline Insight · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Empireloss 1:2

series probability

39%61%

probability at match start · final 1:2

HFwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Marsoften banned

DkFogas · 19 games

37%

Clockwerk

[T]SA · 18 games

39%

Tiny

xannii · 17 games

47%

Grimstroke

[T]SA · 16 games

25%

Bane

633 · 15 games

40%

Sand Kingoften banned

DkFogas · 14 games

43%

Death Prophetoften banned

Antares · 9 games

56%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Dodren · 9 games

22%

HF

Sand Kingsignature

Cloud · 14 games

71%

Miranasignature

ArrOw · 13 games

77%

Dragon Knightoften banned

Cloud · 12 games

58%

Kunkkaoften banned

TA2000 · 12 games

50%

Bane

Malady · 8 games

50%

Pucksignature

hAze · 8 games

75%

Shadow Shamansignature

Kaori · 8 games

75%

Iosignature

Kaori · 7 games

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

509 picks · 447 bans

49%

Mars

489 picks · 701 bans

48%

Bane

455 picks · 291 bans

59%

Dragon Knight

442 picks · 534 bans

53%

Storm Spirit

389 picks · 624 bans

55%

Sand King

385 picks · 544 bans

55%

Pangolier

371 picks · 618 bans

51%

Grimstroke

356 picks · 316 bans

46%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)39% vs 60%

Hero pool strength64% HF

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total61% HF

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed13:36

Team Empire 39%HF 61%

The model gave 61% on HF — the game was taken by Team Empire in 30:50.

Game 2prediction correct19:38

Team Empire 39%HF 61%

The model gave 61% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 44:24.

Game 3prediction correct

Team Empire 39%HF 61%

The model gave 61% on HF — the game was taken by HF.

Model check result

Model favoriteHF · 61%

Series resultHF 1:2

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game2 of 3