Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
Banesignature
Hyde · 9 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 7 games
Medusasignature
23savage · 7 games
Grimstrokesignature
Q · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Gabbi · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
509 picks · 447 bans
Mars
488 picks · 703 bans
Bane
455 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
442 picks · 534 bans
Storm Spirit
389 picks · 626 bans
Sand King
388 picks · 544 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 619 bans
Grimstroke
357 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 77%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:26
Fnatic 56%Talon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 36:50.
Game 2prediction missed18:24
Fnatic 56%Talon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 56%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2