Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Made in Philippineswin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Made in Philippines
Dragon Knightoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 4 games
Bane
Teehee · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
JG · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 3 games
Puckoften banned
JG · 3 games
Neon Esports
Mirana
NARMAN · 12 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 11 games
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 10 games
Weaversignature
NARMAN · 10 games
Snapfire
Se · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
MamangDaya · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
509 picks · 446 bans
Mars
486 picks · 702 bans
Bane
452 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 534 bans
Sand King
388 picks · 543 bans
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 626 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 617 bans
Grimstroke
356 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 29%
Hero pool strength54% Made in Philippines
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:21
Made in Philippines 47%Neon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 40:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautKen
Dragon KnightEnryu
MarsJG
Shadow ShamanChuaN
BatriderRupido
WarlockSe
GrimstrokeTeehee
Game 2prediction missed26:4
Made in Philippines 49%Neon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 25:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingKen
RazorEnryu
Keeper of the LightJG
Treant ProtectorChuaN
Dragon KnightRupido
BaneSe
Ogre MagiTeehee
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 53%
Series resultMade in Philippines 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2