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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TSMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
86%
Bane
Banesignature
Wij · 6 games
83%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 5 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 5 games
60%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 4 games
25%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Wij · 3 games
33%

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 19 games
74%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 11 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bryle- · 9 games
89%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
509 picks · 448 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
485 picks · 701 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
451 picks · 290 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
442 picks · 536 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
390 picks · 628 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
389 picks · 542 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 617 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
357 picks · 316 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total64% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:6
Evil Geniuses 36%TSM 64%
The model gave 64% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 28:14.
Game 2prediction correct26:16
Evil Geniuses 36%TSM 64%
The model gave 64% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 32:36.
Game 3prediction correct27:25
Evil Geniuses 36%TSM 64%
The model gave 64% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 36:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 64%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3