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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EU Rejectsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 16 games
56%
Bane
Bane
jmn- · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Max · 10 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 9 games
33%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 6 games
33%
Io
Iooften banned
jmn- · 6 games
17%

EU Rejects

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Chessie · 3 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
TANNER · 3 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
TANNER · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marcioften banned
j4 · 3 games
33%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Chessie · 3 games
33%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Chessie · 3 games
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
j4 · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
j4 · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 448 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
484 picks · 700 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
450 picks · 290 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
441 picks · 536 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
390 picks · 628 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
389 picks · 545 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 619 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
357 picks · 316 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 20%
Hero pool strength55% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:7
IVY 59%EU Rejects 41%
The model gave 59% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingLowskill
51% · 274 games48% · 80 games
Chaos KnightShad
Chaos Knight
Viper
ViperMo13ei
49% · 92 games52% · 389 games
MarsChessie
Mars
Tidehunter
TidehunterMax
47% · 223 games45% · 62 games
TuskAdzantick
Tusk
Chen
Chenjmn-
49% · 31 game55% · 48 games
Enigmaj4
Enigma
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQupe
44% · 135 games58% · 176 games
MiranaTANNER
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct26:13
IVY 62%EU Rejects 38%
The model gave 62% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 38:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautLowskill
47% · 35 games49% · 223 games
TerrorbladeShad
Terrorblade
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
46% · 164 games55% · 87 games
NecrophosAdzantick
Necrophos
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMax
43% · 134 games59% · 46 games
EnigmaChessie
Enigma
Mirana
MiranaQupe
50% · 128 games50% · 94 games
TuskTANNER
Tusk
Chen
Chenjmn-
62% · 23 games50% · 34 games
Crystal Maidenj4
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 71%
Series resultIVY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2