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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KEKWaitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
OmaR · 10 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
OmaR · 9 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
No!ob · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 7 games
57%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Eixn · 7 games
71%

KEKWait

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Infernal · 2 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Infernal · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 449 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
484 picks · 700 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
451 picks · 290 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
442 picks · 536 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
391 picks · 545 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
390 picks · 628 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 620 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
357 picks · 316 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% KEKWait
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:22
PSG Quest 54%KEKWait 46%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 38:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNo!ob
48% · 23 games48% · 43 games
DawnbreakerInfernal
Dawnbreaker
Marci
MarciOmaR
59% · 13 games
Io
IoEixn
45% · 7 games
Game 2prediction missed36:20
PSG Quest 50%KEKWait 50%
The model gave 50% on KEKWait — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Jakiro
JakiroNo!ob
39% · 34 games50% · 197 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Pugna
PugnaEixn
62% · 49 games
Tiny
TinyOmaR
47% · 114 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKEKWait · 50%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2