Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Bane
Malady · 8 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 8 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 448 bans
Mars
484 picks · 700 bans
Bane
451 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
442 picks · 534 bans
Sand King
391 picks · 545 bans
Storm Spirit
389 picks · 628 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 619 bans
Grimstroke
356 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength60% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:42
11Monkeyz 40%HF 60%
The model gave 60% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 53:32.
Game 2prediction correct23:27
11Monkeyz 40%HF 60%
The model gave 60% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 31:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 60%
Series resultHF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2