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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Summit Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 16 games
31%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 14 games
64%
Bane
Bane
RR · 12 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
33%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 10 games
50%

Summit Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
TrazaM · 8 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Unknown- · 3 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nj · 3 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Nj · 3 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
TrazaM · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nj · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 449 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
487 picks · 695 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 290 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 534 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
392 picks · 547 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
392 picks · 635 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 622 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
357 picks · 318 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Summit Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:19
Execration 52%Summit Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 24:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPalos
49% · 56 games52% · 106 games
Phantom AssassinUnknown-
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBob
53% · 131 game51% · 123 games
ViperNj
Viper
Mars
MarsTino-
51% · 237 games52% · 317 games
Ember SpiritMercury
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
39% · 147 games59% · 40 games
Marciczy
Marci
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerRR
40% · 23 games52% · 8 games
DazzleTrazaM
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed9:40
Execration 51%Summit Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 24:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPalos
53% · 228 games46% · 100 games
MorphlingUnknown-
Morphling
Batrider
BatriderBob
55% · 108 games42% · 109 games
LeshracMercury
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierTino-
46% · 252 games44% · 48 games
DawnbreakerNj
Dawnbreaker
Rubick
RubickShanks
48% · 131 game50% · 195 games
Lionczy
Lion
Marci
MarciRR
60% · 23 games58% · 290 games
BaneTrazaM
Bane
Game 3prediction correct39:28
Execration 55%Summit Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 37:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaPalos
52% · 281 game51% · 255 games
TerrorbladeUnknown-
Terrorblade
Lina
LinaBob
48% · 270 games49% · 308 games
SnapfireMercury
Snapfire
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTino-
50% · 277 games43% · 570 games
MarsNj
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeShanks
47% · 313 games52% · 64 games
DawnbreakerTrazaM
Dawnbreaker
Mirana
MiranaRR
57% · 283 games51% · 227 games
Rubickczy
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 55%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3