Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidaswin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Happy Sealsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 449 bans
Mars
488 picks · 693 bans
Bane
453 picks · 289 bans
Dragon Knight
439 picks · 533 bans
Sand King
394 picks · 547 bans
Storm Spirit
392 picks · 636 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 623 bans
Grimstroke
357 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 25%
Hero pool strength50% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% 5ManMidas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:40
5ManMidas 58%Happy Seals 42%
The model gave 58% on 5ManMidas — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 26:57.
Game 2prediction missed25:32
5ManMidas 58%Happy Seals 42%
The model gave 58% on 5ManMidas — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 37:19.
Model check result
Model favorite5ManMidas · 58%
Series result5ManMidas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2