Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 13 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 13 games
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 10 games
Miranasignature
Boxi · 9 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
zai · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 8 games
Necrophossignature
zai · 8 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 452 bans
Mars
490 picks · 692 bans
Bane
454 picks · 289 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 532 bans
Sand King
395 picks · 547 bans
Storm Spirit
394 picks · 636 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 623 bans
Grimstroke
357 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total76% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:43
Team Liquid 76%Alliance 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 50:29.
Game 2prediction correct14:32
Team Liquid 76%Alliance 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 76%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2