Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPSURIM PRASADloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Bane
antoha · 23 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 12 games
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
nesfeer · 9 games
SURIM PRASAD
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 455 bans
Mars
494 picks · 691 bans
Bane
456 picks · 289 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 534 bans
Sand King
397 picks · 549 bans
Storm Spirit
395 picks · 636 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 624 bans
Grimstroke
359 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:7
X3 79%SURIM PRASAD 21%
The model gave 79% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 20:29.
Game 2prediction correct48:29
X3 79%SURIM PRASAD 21%
The model gave 79% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 36:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 79%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2