Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornloss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DGG Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
Dragon Knightoften banned
Excalibur · 11 games
Juggernautsignature
Gorgc · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 10 games
Snapfiresignature
Pablo · 10 games
Tiny
Excalibur · 9 games
Grimstroke
bengan · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Excalibur · 7 games
DGG Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
509 picks · 451 bans
Mars
493 picks · 690 bans
Bane
458 picks · 289 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 536 bans
Sand King
399 picks · 551 bans
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 635 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 624 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:29
Team Bald Reborn 56%DGG Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by DGG Esports in 42:17.
Game 2prediction correct41:26
Team Bald Reborn 56%DGG Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 54:07.
Game 3prediction missed19:32
Team Bald Reborn 56%DGG Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by DGG Esports in 44:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 56%
Series resultDGG Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3