Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs predictionTSTeam Saiyanloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LBZSwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Saiyan
No games played over 6 months.
LBZS
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 8 games
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
Mirana
CatYou · 6 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Razoroften banned
Shanks · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
508 picks · 450 bans
Mars
493 picks · 694 bans
Bane
458 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 537 bans
Sand King
400 picks · 551 bans
Storm Spirit
397 picks · 636 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 626 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 27%
Hero pool strength59% Team Saiyan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:11
Team Saiyan 32%LBZS 68%
The model gave 68% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 35:11.
Game 2prediction correct6:40
Team Saiyan 32%LBZS 68%
The model gave 68% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 26:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 68%
Series resultLBZS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2