Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Prideloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
South Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gorillaz-Pride
Banesignature
Yadomi · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Genek · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
NaoG · 5 games
Puckoften banned
TaO · 5 games
Hoodwink
Zxca · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
TaO · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
TaO · 4 games
Snapfire
d1smar · 4 games
South Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
508 picks · 450 bans
Mars
494 picks · 695 bans
Bane
458 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 537 bans
Sand King
401 picks · 552 bans
Storm Spirit
398 picks · 637 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 626 bans
Ember Spirit
359 picks · 633 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% South Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:29
Gorillaz-Pride 42%South Team 58%
The model gave 58% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 36:10.
Game 2prediction correct34:40
Gorillaz-Pride 42%South Team 58%
The model gave 58% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 50:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth Team · 58%
Series resultSouth Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2