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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Power Rangerswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 6 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Oscar · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
25%
Windranger
Windranger
Genek · 4 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
K1 · 3 games
67%
Techies
Techies
Panda · 3 games
33%

Power Rangers

Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
61%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 27 games
44%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 26 games
62%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Immersion · 25 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 24 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Immersion · 22 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
Hduo · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
493 picks · 357 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 224 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
350 picks · 642 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
338 picks · 340 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
315 picks · 230 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
309 picks · 299 bans
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 424 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 393 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 68%
Hero pool strength54% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:36
Amaru Gaming 35%Power Rangers 65%
The model gave 65% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosK1
43% · 53 games53% · 183 games
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierPiPi
49% · 221 game46% · 225 games
Kezbashka
Kez
Axe
AxeOscar
47% · 176 games53% · 143 games
UndyingAlberkaaa
Undying
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGenek
50% · 114 games50% · 107 games
LichHduo
Lich
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPanda
55% · 393 games52% · 299 games
WindrangerImmersion
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct13:33
Amaru Gaming 37%Power Rangers 63%
The model gave 63% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 21:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritK1
29% · 3 games47% · 153 games
Shadow Fiendbashka
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark SeerOscar
46% · 111 games49% · 183 games
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Slardar
SlardarPiPi
49% · 269 games56% · 174 games
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
Ember Spirit
Magnus
MagnusGenek
59% · 44 games48% · 38 games
Spirit BreakerImmersion
Spirit Breaker
Enchantress
EnchantressPanda
45% · 143 games60% · 22 games
Witch DoctorHduo
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 72%
Series resultPower Rangers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2