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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 19 games
37%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 17 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
xannii · 17 games
47%
Bane
Bane
633 · 16 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 16 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Dodren · 10 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 10 games
30%

PSG Quest

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
OmaR · 10 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
OmaR · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 8 games
38%
Puck
Pucksignature
No!ob · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 7 games
57%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Eixn · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 454 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
497 picks · 694 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
461 picks · 288 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 533 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
403 picks · 552 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 638 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 625 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
360 picks · 319 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:40
Team Empire 55%PSG Quest 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Empire — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingtatakae
58% · 61 game54% · 15 games
ZeusNo!ob
Zeus
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
41% · 80 games62% · 21 game
MarciOmaR
Marci
Viper
ViperShachlo
54% · 26 games49% · 213 games
SnapfireEixn
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkjAMES
48% · 59 games
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern633
42% · 23 games
Game 2prediction correct47:22
Team Empire 53%PSG Quest 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 44:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebacktatakae
46% · 9 games61% · 73 games
TuskNo!ob
Tusk
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
37% · 83 games50% · 40 games
Nature's ProphetEixn
Nature's Prophet
Snapfire
SnapfirejAMES
43% · 117 games55% · 217 games
TinyOmaR
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightShachlo
53% · 101 game
Jakiro
Jakiro633
39% · 20 games
Game 3prediction missed14:40
Team Empire 53%PSG Quest 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 32:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursatatakae
52% · 74 games62% · 221 game
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSquad1x
49% · 198 games52% · 214 games
TinyOmaR
Tiny
Visage
VisageShachlo
49% · 37 games50% · 183 games
IoEixn
Io
Clockwerk
ClockwerkjAMES
35% · 97 games
Snapfire
Snapfire633
42% · 212 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 61%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3