Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Mist Walkerloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RFRed flowerwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mist Walker
Invokeroften banned
Xy · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xy · 1 game
Venomanceroften banned
Xy · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Xy · 1 game
Red flower
Grimstroke
Yyh_ · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Killa · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Killa · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 452 bans
Mars
495 picks · 693 bans
Bane
464 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 532 bans
Sand King
403 picks · 553 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 640 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 627 bans
Grimstroke
362 picks · 319 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Mist Walker
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Red flower
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:30
Mist Walker 45%Red flower 55%
The model gave 55% on Red flower — the game was taken by Red flower in 24:02.
Game 2prediction correct37:42
Mist Walker 45%Red flower 55%
The model gave 55% on Red flower — the game was taken by Red flower in 29:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteRed flower · 55%
Series resultRed flower 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2