PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 31 game
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 28 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 28 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Smiling Knight · 19 games
Warlock
asdekor_r · 19 games
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 18 games
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 18 games
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 57 games
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 50 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 45 games
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 40 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 35 games
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 32 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
Disruptor
Htrd · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
634 picks · 815 bans
Tiny
560 picks · 579 bans
Tusk
453 picks · 402 bans
Warlock
450 picks · 297 bans
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 1048 bans
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 682 bans
Mars
381 picks · 601 bans
Shadow Fiend
363 picks · 964 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:11
AVULUS 39%Rune Eaters 61%
The model gave 61% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by AVULUS in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverDarkLord^
Windrangeryowaai
Puckdualrazee
Dragon KnightEthereal
BristlebackPalantimos
BrewmasterAnkou
Dark Willowqueezy
Shadow ShamanKidaro
Warlockasdekor_r
Tuskani-san
Game 2prediction correct17:23
AVULUS 40%Rune Eaters 60%
The model gave 60% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterdualrazee
Templar Assassinyowaai
ClinkzDarkLord^
Keeper of the LightEthereal
ViperPalantimos
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Tuskqueezy
Ringmasterani-san
Shadow Demonasdekor_r
DisruptorKidaro
Game 3prediction correct15:27
AVULUS 39%Rune Eaters 61%
The model gave 61% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Keeper of the Lightdualrazee
ViperEthereal
BrewmasterPalantimos
DawnbreakerAnkou
Shadow Shamanqueezy
JakiroKidaro
Warlockasdekor_r
Tuskani-san
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 68%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3