Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternitywin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Ember Spiritoften banned
P1 · 5 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
CarJua · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Cys · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Jubei · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
CarJua · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
high_shaggy · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
P1 · 3 games
Tiny
CarJua · 3 games
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 451 bans
Mars
492 picks · 694 bans
Bane
465 picks · 285 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 531 bans
Sand King
405 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 642 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 623 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 25%
Hero pool strength53% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Eternity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:17
Eternity 62%simply TOOBASED 38%
The model gave 62% on Eternity — the game was taken by Eternity in 39:25.
Game 2prediction correct44:22
Eternity 62%simply TOOBASED 38%
The model gave 62% on Eternity — the game was taken by Eternity in 30:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternity · 62%
Series resultEternity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2