Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ravenswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Ravens
Enchantressoften banned
Cara · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
Mirana
d1smar · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
Bane
Cara · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 449 bans
Mars
492 picks · 695 bans
Bane
464 picks · 285 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 531 bans
Sand King
407 picks · 555 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 642 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 620 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)17% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Ravens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:15
Balrogs 28%Ravens 72%
The model gave 72% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 41:38.
Game 2prediction correct23:28
Balrogs 28%Ravens 72%
The model gave 72% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 31:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 72%
Series resultRavens 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2