Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Banesignature
Panto · 32 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 30 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 28 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 26 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 20 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 17 games
Rune Eaters
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 449 bans
Mars
494 picks · 692 bans
Bane
464 picks · 285 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 531 bans
Sand King
406 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 643 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 620 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 52%
Hero pool strength62% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:11
One Move 51%Rune Eaters 49%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 26:14.
Game 2prediction correct39:26
One Move 51%Rune Eaters 49%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 1:05:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 51%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2