Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs predictionФФЕРЗИloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ФЕРЗИ
Linaoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 2 games
Zeus
KingR · 2 games
Dawnbreaker
baraban · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
baraban · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
baraban · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
KingR · 1 game
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Bane
Malady · 8 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 448 bans
Mars
494 picks · 690 bans
Bane
464 picks · 285 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 531 bans
Sand King
406 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 643 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 619 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:7
ФЕРЗИ 34%HF 66%
The model gave 66% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 29:01.
Game 2prediction correct20:46
ФЕРЗИ 34%HF 66%
The model gave 66% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 28:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 66%
Series resultHF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2