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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Bane
Banesignature
y` · 16 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
69%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
y` · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 9 games
89%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 9 games
67%

Vici Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Victoria · 19 games
42%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Irving · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Yds · 11 games
45%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Xm · 11 games
73%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Irving · 11 games
18%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yds · 10 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 10 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Yds · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 448 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
494 picks · 691 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
463 picks · 286 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
435 picks · 530 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
405 picks · 553 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 644 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 617 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
361 picks · 315 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total58% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:23
LGD Gaming 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 33:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAme
48% · 49 games53% · 73 games
Juggernautpoyoyo
Juggernaut
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNothingToSay
49% · 90 games44% · 112 games
ViperXm
Viper
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFaith_bian
41% · 39 games52% · 83 games
BatriderYang
Batrider
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
56% · 86 games57% · 89 games
Treant ProtectorVictoria
Treant Protector
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXinQ
49% · 151 game48% · 58 games
TuskYds
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed24:35
LGD Gaming 55%Vici Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeAme
61% · 9 games52% · 39 games
Nature's Prophetpoyoyo
Nature's Prophet
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
46% · 192 games49% · 138 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Doom
DoomXinQ
50% · 85 games55% · 61 game
BrewmasterYang
Brewmaster
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFaith_bian
48% · 187 games48% · 248 games
TinyYds
Tiny
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverny`
55% · 74 games49% · 61 game
WindrangerVictoria
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 58%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2