Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs predictionTSTeam Saiyanloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team MagMawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Saiyan
No games played over 6 months.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 451 bans
Mars
494 picks · 694 bans
Bane
464 picks · 287 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 532 bans
Sand King
407 picks · 556 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
379 picks · 617 bans
Grimstroke
363 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength50% Team Saiyan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:42
Team Saiyan 29%Team MagMa 71%
The model gave 71% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 37:04.
Game 2prediction correct5:25
Team Saiyan 29%Team MagMa 71%
The model gave 71% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 23:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 71%
Series resultTeam MagMa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2