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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 19 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 11 games
82%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bryle- · 10 games
90%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
70%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 9 games
89%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 8 games
88%
Bane
Bane
Overlom · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Giant · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
red2 · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
80%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Giant · 5 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 450 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
494 picks · 696 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
464 picks · 288 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 532 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
408 picks · 557 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 644 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
379 picks · 617 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
363 picks · 314 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:9
TSM 72%5RATFORCESTAFF 28%
The model gave 72% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 21:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
52% · 103 games46% · 98 games
TimbersawLil_Nick
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbryle-
49% · 120 games60% · 107 games
Chaos Knightdnm
Chaos Knight
Visage
VisageSabeRLight-
43% · 27 games54% · 177 games
PuckSpeeed
Puck
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMoonMeander
47% · 91 game57% · 10 games
ZeusGiant
Zeus
Pugna
PugnaDuBu
44% · 70 games38% · 19 games
Crystal Maidenalbinozebra
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct46:22
TSM 71%5RATFORCESTAFF 29%
The model gave 71% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 28:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTimado
45% · 94 games54% · 40 games
Wraith Kingdnm
Wraith King
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenbryle-
little data57% · 61 game
RazorLil_Nick
Razor
Undying
UndyingSabeRLight-
47% · 59 games44% · 10 games
PudgeSpeeed
Pudge
Phoenix
PhoenixDuBu
56% · 97 games47% · 81 game
Monkey KingGiant
Monkey King
Marci
MarciMoonMeander
48% · 13 games48% · 71 game
Abaddonalbinozebra
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 87%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2