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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
86%
Bane
Banesignature
Wij · 6 games
83%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 6 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 5 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 5 games
60%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%

The Cut

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
40%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 9 games
33%
Techies
Techies
bgod · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Overlom · 7 games
29%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
43%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 454 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
493 picks · 701 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
466 picks · 288 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 532 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
379 picks · 617 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
364 picks · 314 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength61% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:22
Evil Geniuses 88%The Cut 12%
The model gave 88% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by The Cut in 21:22.
Game 2prediction missed33:16
Evil Geniuses 88%The Cut 12%
The model gave 88% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by The Cut in 34:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 88%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2