Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Pridewin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CECoritiba E-Sportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gorillaz-Pride
Banesignature
Yadomi · 6 games
Hoodwinksignature
d1smar · 6 games
Tusksignature
Genek · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Genek · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
NaoG · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
TaO · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
TaO · 4 games
Puckoften banned
TaO · 4 games
Coritiba E-Sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 451 bans
Mars
493 picks · 699 bans
Bane
466 picks · 288 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 530 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
379 picks · 616 bans
Grimstroke
363 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Coritiba E-Sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:13
Gorillaz-Pride 44%Coritiba E-Sports 56%
The model gave 56% on Coritiba E-Sports — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 33:31.
Game 2prediction missed42:45
Gorillaz-Pride 44%Coritiba E-Sports 56%
The model gave 56% on Coritiba E-Sports — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 1:13:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteCoritiba E-Sports · 56%
Series resultGorillaz-Pride 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2