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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 26 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 23 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Muka · 20 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 20 games
60%
Bane
Bane
Muka · 19 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
69%

X3

Bane
Bane
antoha · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 11 games
45%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 11 games
36%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
30%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
nesfeer · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 451 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
493 picks · 698 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
466 picks · 288 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 530 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 616 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
363 picks · 314 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Hydra
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total50% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:19
Hydra 50%X3 50%
The model gave 50% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckAskold
49% · 41 game44% · 8 games
AlchemistNattyNarwhal
Alchemist
Abaddon
Abaddonkickeed
51% · 34 games54% · 51 game
Bloodseekernesfeer
Bloodseeker
43% · 3 games
DazzleShergarat
Dazzle
29% · 3 games
Zeusvelheor
Zeus
50% · 10 games
Crystal MaidensmN
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed37:11
Hydra 50%X3 50%
The model gave 50% on X3 — the game was taken by Hydra in 32:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusAskold
71% · 3 games41% · 15 games
Nature's ProphetShergarat
Nature's Prophet
Abaddon
Abaddonkickeed
57% · 112 games34% · 43 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
56% · 23 games
Bloodseekernesfeer
Bloodseeker
40% · 11 games
Doomvelheor
Doom
41% · 23 games
VipersmN
Viper
Game 3prediction correct48:32
Hydra 53%X3 47%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 46:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierAskold
49% · 143 gameslittle data
ZeusNattyNarwhal
Zeus
Warlock
Warlockkickeed
57% · 3 games60% · 61 game
Weavernesfeer
Weaver
47% · 11 games
EnigmaShergarat
Enigma
53% · 32 games
Spirit Breakervelheor
Spirit Breaker
41% · 42 games
AbaddonsmN
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 50%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3