Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Marsoften banned
ATF · 17 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 14 games
Banesignature
Misha · 13 games
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 12 games
Puckoften banned
bzm · 11 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 451 bans
Mars
492 picks · 697 bans
Bane
464 picks · 287 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 530 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 616 bans
Grimstroke
362 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:30
OG 67%Entity 33%
The model gave 67% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 46:41.
Game 2prediction correct32:14
OG 67%Entity 33%
The model gave 67% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 31:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 67%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2