?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IVYwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Viper
Viperoften banned
SkyLark · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ThuG · 13 games
62%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
SsaSpartan · 13 games
77%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 12 games
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
SsaSpartan · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
36%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
W1sh- · 11 games
45%

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Max · 13 games
46%
Bane
Bane
jmn- · 10 games
30%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 9 games
33%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
63%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Max · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 7 games
29%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
TheBloodySky · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 448 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
489 picks · 695 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
464 picks · 287 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 528 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
408 picks · 559 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 615 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
361 picks · 310 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Brame
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:26
Brame 64%IVY 36%
The model gave 64% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaThuG
56% · 180 games48% · 39 games
BristlebackLowskill
Bristleback
Lycan
LycanFocus
56% · 63 games52% · 220 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Timbersaw
TimbersawSkyLark
44% · 112 games48% · 117 games
BeastmasterMax
Beastmaster
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyverndEsire
55% · 91 game52% · 82 games
WindrangerQupe
Windranger
Snapfire
SnapfireSsaSpartan
42% · 228 games49% · 216 games
Iojmn-
Io
Game 2prediction missed20:51
Brame 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by IVY in 1:05:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFocus
48% · 143 games58% · 82 games
Faceless VoidLowskill
Faceless Void
Lycan
LycanSkyLark
52% · 47 games55% · 130 games
BeastmasterMax
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireThuG
47% · 158 games55% · 35 games
NecrophosMo13ei
Necrophos
Rubick
RubickdEsire
42% · 115 games57% · 190 games
MiranaQupe
Mirana
Jakiro
JakiroSsaSpartan
34% · 45 games49% · 71 game
Winter Wyvernjmn-
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction missed13:21
Brame 63%IVY 37%
The model gave 63% on Brame — the game was taken by IVY in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaThuG
47% · 162 games60% · 31 game
Naga SirenLowskill
Naga Siren
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkyLark
55% · 130 games49% · 215 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Razor
RazorFocus
49% · 106 games42% · 176 games
Dragon KnightMax
Dragon Knight
Mirana
MiranadEsire
56% · 162 games41% · 55 games
Chenjmn-
Chen
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
56% · 23 games51% · 106 games
Skywrath MageQupe
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 75%
Series resultIVY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3